After a week defined by fading momentum and narrow leadership, global markets enter the new week without a decisive narrative. The CPI-driven relief rally from earlier this month has now fully cooled, and what remains is a market in “wait mode” — too stable to break down, too tired to break out.
The coming week doesn’t deliver the heavy macro fireworks of CPI or NFP, but it will give traders clarity on whether the soft-landing narrative still holds and whether positioning is stretched heading into year-end.
Retail Sales: Key data point for assessing whether consumer strength is cooling in line with expectations or slowing more sharply.
Fed Speeches: Multiple appearances throughout the week will guide expectations on the timing of future cuts, especially as markets continue pricing in more easing than the Fed has signaled.
Oil Stabilization: After last week’s sharp slide, traders will look to see whether energy equities can find footing or whether macro softness deepens further.
CTAs remain moderately exposed, dealers are near neutral, and hedge funds have trimmed mega-cap tech without rotating fully into value. Markets are directionally open: not bullish enough for a breakout, not bearish enough for a breakdown.
The key risk this week is whether mega-cap tech stabilizes or continues to lag. Industrials, financials, and energy may benefit if leadership rotates toward value.
A surprise retail sales reading or a decisive move in the 10-year yield — below ~4% or above ~4.25% — could provide the first real catalyst in weeks.
Expect a slow, technical, positioning-driven week with rotation under the surface. The path of least resistance remains sideways until the next major macro catalyst arrives.
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