In holiday weeks, momentum can look “clean” because fewer participants are around to fight the move. Today’s read: treat trends as fragile until normal liquidity returns.
The tape continues to reward the same cluster: mega-cap tech / AI-adjacent growth. In a thin book, index strength can be more about a handful of names than broad risk appetite.
If the 10-year stays range-bound, growth leadership tends to persist. A yield pop is the fastest way to “break” holiday momentum, because crowded winners become the most liquid source of risk reduction.
Late December is the season of mechanical flows (rebalancing, hedging, buybacks) rather than fresh conviction. Don’t confuse drift for durable trend.
Momentum is constructive but concentration is high. Into year-end, the most important risk control is sizing — not overreacting to holiday price action.
FinTrend analysis: momentum read derived from liquidity + rates drivers highlighted above.