Monday Market Outlook · December 29, 2025

This is the last full week of 2025 trading. The setup remains the same, but the mix changes: the market begins to look forward to January macro data while still operating in a holiday-style liquidity regime.

1. The Week’s Core Driver: Positioning into Year-End

Institutional behavior is predictable late in the year: protect P&L, reduce new risk, rebalance exposures. That can create slow index drift punctuated by quick volatility pockets.

2. The Policy Narrative Still Matters (Even When Nobody’s Trading)

Because risk assets have been so tied to rate expectations, even small changes in inflation/cuts narratives can carry outsized influence in a thin tape.

3. Watch the Liquidity Handoff into January

As desks return, “holiday trends” get tested. If leadership broadens, risk can extend. If it stays concentrated, the first January data surprise can trigger a sharp rotation.

Scenario Checklist (Interactive): Mark what you’re watching.

Yields: stability vs breakout Breadth: broader participation or mega-cap only January macro: inflation/labor reset risk

Sources & Notes (paraphrased)

ACY — year-end positioning and liquidity mechanics. Source
ThinkCapital — December risk map and year-end structure. Source
Reuters — Santa window / seasonality context. Source
Gotrade Daily — holiday week watch items. Source
Federal Reserve — Dec 10 statement. Source
MNI — minutes preview framing. Source
MNI — inflation insight (expectations). Source
BLS — schedule (January cadence). Source
FRED — release calendar hub. Source
Federal Reserve — minutes page. Source

FinTrend analysis: focuses on the positioning-to-January-reset transition highlighted across sources.

Monday Market Outlook — December 29, 2025

1. The Week’s Core Driver: Positioning into Year-End

2. The Policy Narrative Still Matters (Even When Nobody’s Trading)

3. Watch the Liquidity Handoff into January

Sources & Notes (paraphrased)