This week starts with an unusual texture: U.S. markets are closed today for MLK Day, but the macro and political headline cycle doesn’t pause. That matters because when markets reopen, risk can gap to reprice what happened while cash equity was offline.
When futures move on headlines while cash is closed, the first reopen can be more “repricing” than “trading.” Keep position size honest.
Markets are already transitioning into earnings season mode, and at the same time political headlines are re-entering the risk framework. That’s when correlations can tighten and leadership can narrow quickly.
Three things matter most: (a) any sharp repricing of rate expectations, (b) earnings guidance that forces 2026 estimates to move, and (c) geopolitical/trade headlines that hit risk appetite and the dollar simultaneously.
Expect a week where “macro + earnings + headlines” overlap. If yields stay stable, risk can remain supported. If yields rise or headline risk escalates, the market will likely reduce exposure first through the most crowded winners.