Section 122 tariffs hit 15% at 12:01am Tuesday. Futures opened in the red Sunday night. The EU is pushing back. Fed Governor Waller spoke this morning. And Nvidia reports Wednesday in what could be the most consequential earnings release of Q1. Here's how to frame the week.
📅 Monday, February 23, 2026⏱ 7 min read🗓 Week of Feb 23–27
Monday Morning Snapshot
S&P 500 Futs
−0.4%
Red at open
Nasdaq-100
−0.6%
Tech leads lower
Dow Futs
−219 pts
−0.4%
Gold
+1–2%
Safe-haven bid
Bitcoin
~$66K
Briefly <$65K
VIX
~19–20
Elevated, not fearful
The week in one sentence: Markets are still digesting the gap between Friday's relief rally (tariffs struck down!) and Saturday's reality check (15% tariffs signed anyway) — and the answer to which version wins arrives Wednesday when Nvidia reports after the bell.
Three Signals Setting the Tone
⚖️
The Weekend Whiplash: 10% → 15% Before Markets Opened
Trade Policy · Section 122 · EU Reaction
Friday's Supreme Court ruling wiped out IEEPA tariffs. Markets celebrated — the S&P finished Friday up 0.7%. Then Saturday arrived. Trump posted on Truth Social raising the Section 122 tariff rate from 10% to the statutory maximum of 15%, "effective immediately." The 15% officially lands at 12:01am Tuesday on most U.S. imports. USMCA-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods are exempt. Steel and autos already covered by Section 232 are exempt. Everything else faces the new surcharge.
According to Global Trade Alert, the trade-weighted average U.S. tariff rate is now 13.2% under Section 122 at 15% — compared to 15.3% before the Supreme Court ruling. So tariffs came down slightly overall from their IEEPA peak, but the weekend jump from 10% to 15% is what spooked Sunday night futures. The EU responded Sunday saying it "will not accept any increase in tariffs." India delayed a planned trade visit to Washington. Customs and Border Protection hasn't yet updated its systems to stop collecting the now-illegal IEEPA tariffs, adding operational confusion for importers.
Strategist Ed Yardeni's read: "It was much easier when he could use tariffs as a sledgehammer. Now it's become sort of a rubber mallet." Section 122 has a built-in 150-day clock expiring July 24. The administration's plan is to use that window to complete Section 232 and Section 301 investigations, then replace the flat rate with targeted permanent tariffs before it runs out.
🏦
Fed's Waller Spoke — Cautious, Not Committed
Federal Reserve · Rates · Inflation
Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke this morning and offered markets little comfort on rate cuts. After dissenting at January's meeting — he wanted to cut — Waller is now noncommittal on the path forward. He acknowledged the labor market is mixed and that last month's payrolls number may be "more noise than signal." He expects inflation to ease through the year but isn't ready to call for cuts yet.
This matters because rate-cut expectations already collapsed after last week's hot PCE report (core at 0.4% month-over-month). March cut probability: 5%. June: 57%, down from 85% a week ago. Waller isn't the only Fed voice this week — Goolsbee, Bostic, and Cook all speak Tuesday. Three in one day is unusual, suggesting the Fed may be actively trying to shape market expectations before next month's meeting. If all three sound patient or cautious, long-duration assets and high-multiple tech face more pressure.
📊
Markets Are Numb to Tariff Headlines — But Not Immune
Sentiment · Positioning · Volatility
The most telling thing about this morning: futures are down 0.4–0.6%, not 2–3%. Traders have learned that no tariff statement from this administration is treated as durable. The market is choosing — for now — to focus on earnings and economic fundamentals rather than the trade policy noise. As Yardeni put it: "Sit still and do nothing."
Gold up 1–2% is the hedge, not a panic signal. Bitcoin's brief dip below $65,000 is a liquidity reaction, not a macro call. The VIX at ~19–20 is elevated but not screaming. The market is cautious and watchful heading into a week with several binary outcomes — most importantly, Nvidia Wednesday. That report is the real sentiment arbiter for the week.
This Week's Events — Who They Affect & Why
MondayFeb 23
10:00am ET
Factory Orders & Durable Goods — December Final
👥 Who it moves: Industrial stocks, manufacturers, freight & logistics
Last week's GDP printed at 1.4% — half of what Wall Street expected. Factory Orders for December tell us whether business investment and equipment spending actually weakened on their own, or whether the miss was mostly government-shutdown noise. A weak number firms up the stagflation story. A solid number provides relief and gives the Fed more room to stay patient without being accused of ignoring the economy.
Medium
After close
Dominion Energy (D) Earnings Earnings
👥 Who it moves: Utilities, energy infrastructure, AI power demand investors
Dominion is a key proxy for the power grid buildout story. AI data centers are driving electricity demand to decade highs, and Dominion operates in some of the densest data center corridors in the U.S. (Northern Virginia). Any update on capacity expansion plans, regulatory approvals, or forward demand contracts feeds directly into the AI infrastructure narrative heading into Nvidia Wednesday.
Low–Med
After close
Diamondback Energy (FANG) Earnings Earnings
👥 Who it moves: Energy sector, oil & gas investors, inflation trackers
With Iran tensions pushing crude above $66 and oil up 15% since January 1, Diamondback's results and guidance give a real-time read on U.S. shale output capacity and the profitability of domestic oil production at current prices. Higher oil prices are good for energy stocks but bad for inflation — and the Fed is already watching energy costs carefully.
Low–Med
TuesdayFeb 24
12:01am ET
Section 122 Tariffs Go Live — 15% Global Levy
👥 Who it moves: Every importer — apparel, consumer electronics, retailers, auto parts, general merchandise
This is the structural event of the week. The 15% flat tariff applies to most U.S. imports for 150 days. Key exemptions: USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods, products already covered by Section 232 (steel, aluminium, autos, copper, lumber), and goods with in-transit exemptions loaded before Feb 24 and cleared before Feb 28. For companies with heavy import exposure — especially apparel, consumer electronics, and general merchandise — this is an immediate margin pressure event. Expect management teams on earnings calls all week to field questions about supply chain exposure and pricing power.
HIGH
10:00am ET
Consumer Confidence — February (Conference Board)
👥 Who it moves: Consumer discretionary stocks, retailers, auto companies, housing
University of Michigan sentiment ticked up marginally to 56.6 in February — still historically depressed. The Conference Board's measure focuses more on purchasing intentions than feelings, making it a harder economic signal. With tariff uncertainty building and inflation readings running hot, any meaningful drop in confidence signals the consumer may finally be pulling back. Consumer spending is roughly 70% of U.S. GDP — this is not a throwaway release.
Medium
All day
Fed Speakers: Goolsbee, Bostic, Cook
👥 Who it moves: Bonds, rate-sensitive equities (utilities, REITs), tech valuations, the dollar
Three Fed officials speaking on the same day is a coordinated signal, not a coincidence. Goolsbee (Chicago) has been dovish. Bostic (Atlanta) is projecting just one cut in 2026. Cook has been measured. If all three sound patient or lean hawkish after last week's hot PCE, June cut odds fall further from their current 57%. Lower rate-cut expectations compress valuations on long-duration assets and high-multiple tech, two categories already under pressure from the AI-disrupts-software narrative.
Medium
9:00pm ET
State of the Union Address — President Trump
👥 Who it moves: All markets — trade policy, defense, energy, healthcare, fiscal outlook
The SOTU lands the same night the Section 122 tariffs take effect. Trump will almost certainly address the Supreme Court ruling and frame the 15% tariff as a strength move, not a retreat. Watch for: any language about the 150-day clock and congressional extension plans; signals about Section 232/301 investigation timelines; any new trade deal announcements or threats; commentary on Iran. Asian futures markets will react before U.S. markets open Wednesday — the SOTU sets the tone for Nvidia day.
HIGH
After close
Home Depot (HD) Earnings Earnings
👥 Who it moves: Housing sector, home improvement retail, building materials, consumer spending
Home Depot is one of the cleanest proxies for housing market health and the DIY consumer. After last week's NAHB housing confidence index dropped to 36 and pending home sales fell 0.8%, Home Depot's guidance tells us whether affordability stress is translating into actual purchase pullbacks. Tariff exposure is also key — Home Depot imports significant amounts of building materials and tools. Management's commentary on the 15% tariff impact on costs will be closely scrutinised.
Medium
WednesdayFeb 25
After close
Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 FY2026 Earnings 🔥 Earnings
👥 Who it moves: The entire technology sector, AI supply chain, semiconductor stocks, and broad market sentiment
This is the event of the week — and possibly the event of Q1. Wall Street expects $65.6B in revenue (up 65% year-over-year) and $1.52 EPS. Nvidia has beaten estimates twelve consecutive quarters. Polymarket assigns a 94.5% probability of a beat. But the real question isn't whether Nvidia beats — it's what Jensen Huang says about the forward outlook. Three things to watch: (1) Blackwell ramp — the GB300 chip now represents two-thirds of Blackwell revenue; does the $500B combined Blackwell/Rubin pipeline through end-2026 stay intact? (2) China — Nvidia currently assumes zero China revenue due to export restrictions; any signal that access is opening could add tens of billions to the forward outlook. (3) Margins — gross margins have been under pressure; investors need to see stability here. A miss or cautious guidance risks triggering a selloff across the entire AI-adjacent sector at a time when software stocks are already fragile.
🔥 Critical
After close
Salesforce (CRM) Earnings Earnings
👥 Who it moves: Software sector, SaaS stocks, enterprise tech broadly
Software has been the most beaten-down corner of tech in 2026 because of one central fear: AI agents are replacing software workflows rather than augmenting them. Salesforce reporting strong AI-driven revenue growth — particularly from its Agentforce product — would be powerful evidence that legacy software can adapt. A weak report, or commentary about losing enterprise deals to AI alternatives, deepens the narrative that has already crushed the sector this year. Snowflake also reports Wednesday, adding a second datapoint to the same question.
HIGH
After close
Lowe's (LOW) Earnings Earnings
👥 Who it moves: Housing sector, home improvement, consumer spending
Back-to-back with Home Depot on Tuesday, Lowe's completes the housing-adjacent consumer picture. If both report weakness, it signals the housing recovery has stalled. If both hold up despite affordability headwinds, the consumer is more resilient than the macro data suggests. Tariff exposure on building materials is an identical question for Lowe's management.
Medium
ThursdayFeb 26
8:30am ET
Initial Jobless Claims (Week of Feb 21)
👥 Who it moves: Rate cut expectations, consumer sentiment, broad equities
Claims fell sharply last week to 206K — well below the 223K estimate and one of the cleanest signals that the labor market isn't collapsing despite slowing growth. If claims tick back up meaningfully toward 230K+, it reopens the question of whether the labor market is softening faster than headline payrolls suggest. The Fed's permission slip to cut rates runs directly through this number — a weakening labor market is the one thing that could override the Fed's inflation patience.
Medium
After close
Dell Technologies (DELL) Earnings Earnings
👥 Who it moves: AI server market, enterprise IT, data centre infrastructure stocks
Dell is a major assembler of AI servers built around Nvidia's GPUs. Its results either confirm or contradict Nvidia's demand narrative from the night before. Strong AI server order growth corroborates the buildout story. Slowing orders or cautious guidance is a yellow flag for the whole sector — and for the idea that Nvidia's chips are being absorbed at the pace the market expects. Dell also gives a broader read on enterprise IT spending.
Medium
FridayFeb 27
8:30am ET
Producer Price Index (PPI) — January
👥 Who it moves: Fed policy, inflation-sensitive sectors, bond yields, consumer goods companies, retailers
PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level — the prices producers pay before they pass costs downstream to consumers. After last Friday's hot PCE reading (core at 0.4% month-over-month), PPI tells us whether pipeline cost pressures are building or easing. A hot PPI print after a hot PCE print is the worst-case scenario for the Fed: it signals inflation is systemic, not just a blip. With new 15% tariffs adding to input costs starting this week, a hot January PPI would reinforce the stagflation narrative that has been building since the GDP miss.
HIGH
9:45am ET
Chicago PMI — February
👥 Who it moves: Industrial stocks, manufacturers, regional economic sentiment
The Chicago-region Purchasing Managers' Index is an early read on whether manufacturing activity is expanding or contracting. Last week's Flash PMI from S&P Global showed U.S. business activity slowed to a 10-month low, with weakened demand, high prices, and adverse weather cited. Chicago PMI either confirms that softness or pushes back against it — providing context heading into next week's national ISM data.
Low
Levels Worth Watching
S&P 500
Last close~6,892
Support~6,800 (50-day SMA)
Resistance6,900 ceiling
Nasdaq-100
Key level100-day SMA
StatusStill below it
CatalystNvidia Wednesday
10-Year Yield
Current~4.07%
Watch4.20% as ceiling
Key datePPI Friday
Crude Oil
Last price~$66/bbl
WildcardIran deadline ~Feb 27
Watch$70 if tensions spike
📝 Test Your Knowledge
Section 122 tariffs expire in 150 days. What has to happen for them to be extended beyond July 24?
📊 Reader Poll
Which event will have the biggest market impact this week?
Monday's Thesis
The tariff story just changed vehicles — IEEPA is gone, Section 122 is in — but the destination looks roughly the same. The real question this week isn't what tariff rate applies; it's whether the AI earnings cycle is intact. Nvidia answering that on Wednesday matters more to market direction than every tariff headline combined. If Nvidia delivers, the market has a reason to look past the noise. If it doesn't, there is nothing holding the tech sector together through what promises to be months of continued trade policy uncertainty.
This note is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All data reflects publicly available sources as of Monday, February 23, 2026. Markets move fast — verify figures before acting on them.