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Monday Market Outlook
Key themes heading into the new trading week.
Published Mondays
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December Seasonality, Fed Messaging and a Market Priced for Perfection

Written by James Minnehan · FinTrend News · Monday Outlook · December 1, 2025

The calendar has rolled into December with U.S. equities near the top of the year’s range, volatility suppressed, and the market comfortably leaning into a soft-landing narrative. The bar for positive surprise is high — and the risk is that “good but not great” data suddenly stops being good enough.

Data Watch: Empire State, Retail Sales, and Producer Prices

This week’s macro calendar is light on headline-grabbing events but rich in signals: regional manufacturing, U.S. retail sales, and producer prices will help determine whether the soft-landing narrative still holds as inflation drifts above target and growth cools at the margin.

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