The six biggest banks report Tuesday and Wednesday, September CPI lands Wednesday and Warsh speaks Friday. Core CPI decides whether October hike odds, now 20–25%, jump; consumer credit is the bank number to watch.
Giulio Ghetti on how UniCredit built a 47.59% stake without Berlin's consent, and why Europe's biggest cross-border bank deal in years works mainly because it is, at heart, a German merger.
CPI ran hot and PPI hit 6.3%, yet the 10-year fell to about 5.1% as an AI-credit scare took over: CoreWeave's debt slid, the Kospi fell 8% and chips headed for a ninth straight loss. Dow +1.0%, Nasdaq −2.4% through Thursday.
A weak jobs report took an October hike off the table and left the S&P within 1% of its record. Fed minutes, PepsiCo and Delta this week; banks and September CPI next. The 10-year's 5.17%–5.34% range is the constraint.
The S&P closed at a record 7,818.93, its first since August, and the Nasdaq set back-to-back highs on buyouts and Constellation's Google deal. But the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% on record day, with Fed minutes due at 2 p.m.
The S&P rose 1.2% to 7,811.54, just below Tuesday's record, despite hawkish Fed minutes, a 5.36% 10-year and a report that OpenAI's revenue run-rate is about $50B, not $70B. Delta's fuel-driven guidance cut put the oil shock into earnings.
Most Fed officials still see a hike by year-end, and the reason is expectations: Michigan's long-run gauge rose to 3.5% as sentiment fell to 46.3. Three energy shocks in one week, and what Wednesday's core CPI needs to show.
Stocks sit within 1% of a record, but the 10-year is at its highest since 2007. August PCE, Micron's earnings and Friday's jobs report decide whether a narrow AI-led rally carries into Q4.
The S&P gave back 0.9% in two sessions to 7,670.84 as the 10-year hit 19-year highs and new lows kept swamping new highs. A cooler PCE print (core 3.0%) offers the first real opening for a turn.
The 10-year touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, before September payrolls of just 29,000 cut October hike odds below 23%. The S&P slipped 0.3% on the week to 7,722.72; the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.
Hike odds fell from 64% to under 23% in a week, yet the 10-year ended Friday at 5.28%, where it closed Wednesday. That's term premium, not the Fed: record French borrowing, 6% gilts and an oil shock the G7 is trying to cushion.
Stocks sit within 1% of a record, but the 10-year is at its highest since 2007. August PCE, Micron's earnings and Friday's jobs report decide whether a narrow AI-led rally carries into Q4.
The S&P gave back 0.9% in two sessions to 7,670.84 as the 10-year hit 19-year highs and new lows kept swamping new highs. A cooler PCE print (core 3.0%) offers the first real opening for a turn.
The 10-year touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, before September payrolls of just 29,000 cut October hike odds below 23%. The S&P slipped 0.3% on the week to 7,722.72; the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.
Hike odds fell from 64% to under 23% in a week, yet the 10-year ended Friday at 5.28%, where it closed Wednesday. That's term premium, not the Fed: record French borrowing, 6% gilts and an oil shock the G7 is trying to cushion.
With the hike behind and no FOMC to hide behind, the market trades a 5% world on its own. Watch whether the 10-year holds 5%, whether AI trades demand over debate, and the Gulf's still-burning oil fuse.
The Nasdaq set back-to-back records and AMD briefly hit $1 trillion, but the equal-weight S&P lagged and new lows outnumbered new highs. A five-year-high flash PMI (58.4) pushed the 10-year back over 5%.
The Nasdaq rose 2.1% and the S&P 1.2% to 7,743.41, within 0.7% of its record. But a hot PMI lifted the 10-year to about 5.18%, its highest since 2007, and October hike odds to roughly two-in-three.
Yields hit 2007 highs even as oil fell. The driver is growth and real rates, not an inflation panic: a five-year-high PMI, record capex orders and a global bond selloff the Treasury couldn't cap.
The week funnels toward Wednesday's expected first hike since 2023, but an AI-safety scare hits first — Nvidia −3.4%, the semiconductor index −5.8%, and the 10-year touching 5%. Cyber and software cushion the rotation.
Hours before the Fed's 2 p.m. call, internals flash caution: broken chip leadership, thin breadth, and two straight down days (S&P to 7,585.73) with no dip-buyers stepping in.
The FOMC raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% — its first hike in three years, unanimous, with 16 of 19 dots seeing more. Stocks whipsawed to roughly flat; the S&P ended at 7,650.50 with the 10-year at 5%.
The Fed retired the soft-landing reflex: a hawkish dot plot, a 5% 10-year, and a supply-side oil shock it can't fix. The regime now rewards profitability over narrative — and the Fed put is gone.
Markets closed for Labor Day, but the holiday-shortened week delivers the last inflation reads before the Fed — PPI Thursday, CPI Friday — with a September hike now the base case (~58%) and oil climbing toward $100 on renewed Iran strikes.
Stocks fell a third straight session — the S&P to 7,636.36 — as the Treasury tripled its bond buybacks yet the 10-year jumped to 4.86%, its highest since 2023. Brent topped $100 for the first time since July, with PPI Thursday and CPI Friday the last inflation reads before the Fed.
An in-line August CPI (3.4% headline, core cooling to 2.4%) and a ~3% drop in Brent snapped a four-day slide. The S&P rose 0.9% to 7,656.98, though it still finished the week lower with a Fed hike looming.
Two slowdown arguments land at once — the Fed set to hike Wednesday, and AI's own leaders (Amodei, Altman, Musk) calling to 'pace the frontier.' Both threaten the same long-duration growth cohort.
August closed green — the Nasdaq's best August since 2021 — but September opens with renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and a hawkish Fed. The Dow fell 374 points to 53,185.90.
Tech snapped a three-day slide, lifting the S&P to 7,666.60, but Brent settled near $96 on the Iran conflict and a hawkish Fed capped the bounce ahead of Friday's jobs report.
August payrolls surged 162,000 — triple forecasts, with July revised positive — lifting hike odds to ~58% and the 2-year to 4.37%. The S&P fell to 7,718.60; good news, sold.
The dovish case collapsed — a hot jobs report, sticky inflation, oil near $96, and a president demanding cuts. The Fed's September reckoning arrives with a hike now the base case.
Two referees in one week — Nvidia's earnings Wednesday and Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote Friday. The S&P opened lower at 7,652.86 as oil eased and yields fell.
A frozen session: the S&P held flat at 7,675.70 as July PCE stayed sticky (core 3.3%) and traders waited on Nvidia, which delivered a strong outlook after the close.
Nvidia surged ~9% on earnings, but Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote nearly doubled September hike odds to ~57%. The S&P slipped to 7,711.76 yet still won the week.
A September hike is now the base case. Warsh sees 'secular growth,' the curve is flattening, and Friday's jobs report becomes the last data before the Fed decides.
Stocks sit near records but the long bond takes the wheel: a 30-year yield near 2007 highs and firming oil set the week's terms. The S&P slipped 0.5% to 7,745.06.
U.S. debt crossed $40 trillion as the Treasury doubled its bond buybacks to stem a long-end rout; yields fell and the S&P rose to 7,707.98, its first gain in four days.
A week the bond market ran — yields hit multi-decade highs and the buyback relief lasted a day. The S&P snapped a three-week streak; Friday rebounded to 7,674.37 on health care and crypto.
The Treasury's buyback expansion looks like soft financial repression — a $40T debt load, a long-end buyers' strike, and AI issuance all competing for duration into Jackson Hole.
Coming off a record Friday built on a weak jobs print, Wednesday's July CPI is the week's decisive test of whether the Fed can stay patient. Retail sales and consumer sentiment follow Friday.
July CPI came in tame — 3.4% headline, 2.5% core — reigniting the AI trade; the S&P rose to 7,748.50 and September hold odds climbed toward 60%. Nvidia and Super Micro led.
A third straight weekly gain, but a Friday wobble: retail sales fell 0.6% and sentiment dropped to 51.0. The S&P eased to 7,785.76 from Thursday's 7,798.99 record.
Indices at records while the consumer retreats — soft retail sales, sliding sentiment — and AI capex ($200B+ of investment-grade debt in 2026) increasingly the load-bearing wall under growth.
Stocks opened August higher - the S&P back above 7,500 - as WTI fell ~7% to $78.88 on renewed Iran talks and ISM manufacturing jumped to 55.6. But Friday's July jobs report (est. ~90-120k, unemployment to 4.3%) into a Fed that won't ease is the week's real event. Palantir reports tonight.
The Dow printed a fresh record at 54,349 even as the S&P eased to 7,723.55 and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% — leadership rotating from mega-cap tech into cyclicals. SpaceX sank on bigger AI capex; Disney rose on a strong box office.
July payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000, yet the S&P closed at a record 7,757.64 (+0.6%) as soft jobs eased hike fears and the 10-year slid to 4.64%. Nvidia jumped 10% on the week on Musk's 'exclusively on Nvidia' pledge.
A contracting labor market collides with sticky, war-driven inflation and a 30-year yield near 2007 highs — the Fed's two-front war, with the unresolved Hormuz talks still the swing variable.
A weekend U.S.–Iran pause sent Brent down 11% — its worst day since April — lifting the Dow. But Nvidia fell 5% and the Nasdaq closed red, into the busiest week of the quarter: the Fed, and four of the five biggest companies in America.
A hawkish Fed hold, 9–3, with three dissents for a hike — the most since 2016 — sent the Dow down 1,153 points to 51,594.14, its worst day since April 2025, as the 30-year yield hit 2007 highs. After the bell, Microsoft's Azure beat lifted it while Meta's margin collapse sank the stock.
The week built to break the AI trade instead reaffirmed it. A hawkish Fed hold and 2007-high yields met Microsoft's blowout and Amazon's AWS reacceleration (+37%), reversing a month-long tech selloff. Core PCE cooled to 3.3%; the 10-year hit 4.737%. Meta and Apple were the exceptions.
July closed down ~0.1% - its first losing July in 11 years - a flat line hiding a 3.2% Nasdaq drop, a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents, and an oil war premium. Now a jobs-report week arrives into a Fed that won't ease, with Iran talks pulling crude back below $80.
Thirty S&P 500 companies worth $12.55 trillion report Wednesday with the Fed in blackout and the data calendar empty. Energy led Monday as crude and yields overwhelmed an early chip recovery.
Brent settled at $94.07 — a six-week high — on the 11th round of U.S. strikes, and the 10-year retested May highs. The S&P finished flat but the Russell 2000 fell 0.92%. Alphabet and Tesla drew a harsh reception on capex.
The Magnificent Seven shed ~$800B on Thursday — not on a miss but on a promise to keep spending on AI. Alphabet, Intel and TSMC all beat and all fell. The S&P finished the week −0.6% as the FOMC meets Wednesday.
A weekend U.S.–Iran pause threatens to pull oil — the market's master variable for six weeks — out from under the tape, 48 hours before the FOMC, MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN earnings, and Core PCE.
Trump reinstates the Iran blockade with a 20% Hormuz cargo levy; Brent jumps 9.46% to $83.20. Why a transit toll is a different animal than a supply disruption — and why July hike odds are near even.
June CPI fell 0.4% m/m to 3.5% y/y — the sharpest drop since April 2020 — with core flat at 2.6%. Goldman beat consensus by over 40%. Warsh told Congress the FOMC has no tolerance for elevated inflation, then declined to guide.
The best inflation week of 2026 ended with the S&P down 1.6% and semiconductors in a bear market. TSMC beat and fell 4% — a terminal-value repricing, not an earnings problem. Non-tech earnings were quietly excellent.
Hike odds collapsed to 10% for July and inflation cooled — yet the AI trade kept falling. The repricing is about competitive moats, not discount rates. Alphabet's capex guidance Wednesday is the number that matters.
Markets return from the holiday weekend into Iran's mourning period, a Fed committee that looks evenly divided going into July 28-29, and a chip sector trying to find a floor.
The June FOMC minutes show a committee far more divided than the unanimous headline suggested, while a Hormuz naval scare briefly spikes WTI to $74 before easing.
Iran's mourning period ends and Doha talk signals ease the Hormuz risk premium, sending the Dow to a fresh record and semiconductors to their best day in weeks.
June CPI lands Tuesday into a re-escalating Strait of Hormuz. The print is backward-looking by construction — why core matters more than the headline, and what the 20.9% earnings bar means.
Dow closes above 52,000 for the first time as Alphabet joins the index. Supreme Court protects Fed independence in the Cook case. Iran stand-down holds; Thursday's jobs report arrives a day early.
Russell 2000 posts its best first half since 1991. Q3 opens with money rotating out of semiconductors into Dow blue chips. ADP misses. Warsh stays silent at Sintra.
A weak jobs report tests the disinflation-summer thesis just as Iran's funeral week reopens the Strait of Hormuz risk premium and the Fed heads toward a split July decision.
SPCX shed 16% Monday — its worst single session. South Korea's KOSPI cratered 9.99%. Micron reports Wednesday. Core PCE lands Thursday. Does the AI rally have fundamental footing or is it froth?
After Monday's brutal chip selloff and Tuesday's continued tech slide, Micron delivered a blowout beat-and-raise. Nasdaq futures surged 2.3% overnight. PCE and GDP land Thursday morning.
Core PCE 3.4% — above estimates, likely the cycle top. WTI below $70. GDP revised up to 2.1%. Tech weak, Russell outperformed. OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to 2027. Q3 will decide the rate path.
Oil below $70 for the first time since January. Core PCE at the cycle peak. GDP stronger than feared. The inflation arc from the Iran war is bending back — but NFP Thursday and June CPI in mid-July must confirm the thesis.
Warsh chairs his first FOMC this week. Iran peace framework signed overnight. SPCX enters week two with MSCI inclusion kicking in. The most consequential 72 hours for markets since the war began.
Unanimous hold. Hawkish dot plot — 9 of 18 see a 2026 hike. No forward guidance. Five task forces. Worst S&P performance on a new chair's first Fed day since 1994. Iran MOU formally signed Thursday.
Three trading days, one historic Fed meeting, one signed peace deal. SPCX hit ATH $225.64 Monday then shed 18% into week's end. S&P +0.9% on the week. Markets closed Friday for Juneteenth.
The stagflation arithmetic has shifted but not resolved. Warsh has drawn his line. Iran signed the paper. Micron reports Wednesday. Core PCE Thursday. SPCX down 27% from its all-time high.
May CPI Wednesday. SpaceX pricing Thursday, debut Friday. FOMC eight days away. Three catalysts that will set the tape's direction for the rest of the summer.
US and Iran exchange military strikes overnight. Oil heading toward $100. Nasdaq futures down 2%. May CPI drops this morning — the most consequential data release of the pre-FOMC window.
SpaceX closes at $161.11 on its Nasdaq debut — the largest IPO in history. May CPI 4.2% YoY. Iran deal draft text finalized. Oil falls toward $84 on peace hopes ahead of Warsh's first FOMC.
SpaceX went public Friday. Iran agreed to a ceasefire framework overnight. May CPI hit a 3-year high of 4.2%. Warsh walks into his first FOMC Tuesday carrying all of it — and none of it resolved.
Nine straight weekly wins entering June. Iran MOU unsigned — overnight US strikes complicate the picture. May NFP lands Friday. SpaceX roadshow in eight days.
Broadcom AI guidance miss sends chips down 14%. SpaceX locks in $135/share for the largest IPO in history. Oil back near $97 as Iran tensions refuse to die.
Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025. $1T wiped from semis in two sessions. May jobs report comes in at 172K vs 85K estimate — double consensus and extinguishing rate-cut hopes.
PCE 3.8%. NFP +172K. Oil near $98. Warsh walks into his first FOMC with the hardest data backdrop of the year. CPI Wednesday is the pivot point before June 17.
Markets closed — Memorial Day. Iran MOU unsigned. Oil dips below $100. PCE and jobs data arrive this week. Warsh's first full week as Chair begins Tuesday.
April PCE 3.8% — highest since May 2023. GDP revised to 1.6%. Dell surges 33% on record AI server quarter. Snowflake kills the SAASpocalypse narrative.
S&P locks in its ninth consecutive weekly gain — longest since 2023. Dow crosses 51K for the first time. Nasdaq up 8% in May. Iran 60-day MOU reported.
NVIDIA prints $81.6B quarter and guides to $91B more. SpaceX files its S-1. Iran talks inch forward. Three storylines pulling the tape in different directions.
S&P posts its eighth consecutive weekly gain. Kevin Warsh sworn in at the White House. Dell surges 30%. Iran talks put oil below $100 for the first time since March.
Warsh swears in to the hardest inflation backdrop in a generation. Oil below $100 — but not from strength. SpaceX S-1 is a bet on something that doesn't exist yet.
CPI Tuesday, Warsh confirmation vote, Powell term expires Friday. Iran MOU still unsigned. Three binary events in five sessions; VIX at 17 is not pricing it.
Trump's patience with Iran is running out. Warsh hasn't declared his. Rate-hike odds at 45%. The next 30 days — Walmart earnings, May CPI, first FOMC — will define the second half.
Iranian drones hit Fujairah; Brent $114, WTI $106. Powell's era ends May 15. Warsh confirmation imminent. NFP Friday the week's binary. Breadth at dotcom-era lows.
U.S.–Iran MOU talks collapse over weekend; Brent back to $103. CPI Tuesday, Warsh vote, Powell expiry Friday. The six-week rally meets its first real test.
FOMC splits 8-4 — most divided since 1992. PCE 3.5% near three-year high. Warsh inherits a fractured committee, a closed Strait, and Powell still voting at the table.
Trump extends 48-hr ultimatum 5 days after "very good conversations"; oil off $114 highs near $113; S&P stabilizes near 6,500; PCE Friday is the data anchor.
Iran rejects U.S. 15-point framework, submits counter; Saudi air base hit again; two paths — ceasefire rally or Apr 6 escalation; April 9 PCE is secondary anchor.
This calendar is for reference and education only. Each note reflects views at the time of writing and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument.