Markets · Wednesday, April 15, 2026
The S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high of 7,022 as Iran ceasefire optimism collided with a blowout bank earnings day. But oil is still above $90, the Strait of Hormuz isn't open, and the IMF just cut its global growth outlook. This rally is running on hope as much as fundamentals.
Wednesday was the S&P 500's 10th positive session in 11 trading days — and not by a narrow margin. The index closed at a fresh all-time high of 7,022.95, completing a full recovery from its Iran-war lows and then some. The Nasdaq posted its 11th consecutive daily gain, its longest win streak in years. From late March trough to today's close, the S&P is up roughly 15% — its best 15-day run since March 2022.
What's driving it? Two things: a potential diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East, and an earnings season that is beating expectations across the board. Both gave markets exactly what they needed this week.
President Trump said Wednesday that the Iran conflict is "very close to over," suggesting a second round of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad could happen within days. No schedule is confirmed — but markets treated the comment as near-certainty.
The real fuel today came from two of the biggest names in finance reporting simultaneously — and both crushed it.
Morgan Stanley posted its best quarter on record. Revenue crossed $20.6 billion for the first time — a 16% year-over-year jump — while EPS came in at $3.43 against a consensus estimate of $3.02. Equities trading revenue surged 25% to $5.1 billion, a divisional record, as hedge fund prime brokerage activity and volatility-driven derivatives volume poured in. Fixed income rose 29% to $3.36 billion, boosted heavily by commodities trading during the energy spike. Investment banking revenues jumped 36% to $2.1 billion as completed M&A deals and a thawing IPO market drove advisory fees. Wealth management hit a record $8.5 billion, with pre-tax margins expanding to 30.4%. CEO Ted Pick described the firm's posture as "measured confidence" — which, given these numbers, is about as close to a victory lap as Wall Street allows.
Bank of America delivered its best trading quarter in 15 years. Equities trading revenue jumped 30% to $2.83 billion, coming in roughly $350 million above analyst forecasts. Net interest income — the spread the bank earns between loans and deposits — grew 9% to $15.9 billion, beating expectations, and BofA promptly raised its full-year NII guidance from 5–7% growth to 6–8%. Investment banking fees rose 21% to $1.8 billion. Net income reached $8.6 billion, and the loan-loss provision of $1.3 billion came in well below both last year's figure and consensus estimates — a signal that borrower health remains solid despite the macro noise.
Across Goldman (Monday), JPMorgan (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley and BofA (today), the big banks have collectively posted their strongest earnings season in at least five years. Volatility, it turns out, is very good for trading desks.
Markets are pricing in the peace deal before it exists. The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. WTI crude settled at $91.72 — down from its $103 spike last week, but still far above the pre-conflict levels near $75 that most economic forecasts were built on. Until tankers move freely again, energy inflation isn't going away.
The IMF made that math explicit Wednesday, revising its 2026 global growth forecast down to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing the energy shock stemming directly from the conflict. That's not catastrophic, but it's a meaningful drag — and it hasn't found its way into corporate earnings guidance yet. Q2 will be the first quarter where oil above $90 hits the full income statement of every energy-intensive company.
The NAHB Housing Market Index also disappointed, printing at 34 against a 37 forecast — another sign that elevated mortgage rates and cost uncertainty are keeping the housing market cold. And the Fed Beige Book, released this afternoon, added little reassurance about the pace of regional economic recovery.
One bright spot outside financials: the SEC approved relaxed day-trading rules for retail investors, sending Robinhood (HOOD) up over 10% to $87.32 on heavy volume. It's a deregulatory signal consistent with the current administration's broader posture, and one that Charles Schwab (+1.9%) and Interactive Brokers (+3.4%) also caught a bid from.
The macro calendar gets heavier overnight and into Thursday morning. China's Q1 GDP data drops early, giving the first clear read on how the world's second-largest economy absorbed the energy shock. UK GDP and manufacturing data follow in the European session, along with ECB meeting minutes that could clarify the central bank's appetite for further cuts in a stagflation-adjacent environment. U.S. initial jobless claims and industrial production round out the domestic picture.
On the earnings front, the pace continues. Investors will be watching closely for whether the momentum from financials carries into other sectors — or whether guidance from industrials and consumer companies starts to reflect the oil-price reality that bank trading desks have spent the last month profiting from.
Today felt like a victory lap. New records, blowout bank earnings, peace optimism — it was genuinely a good day. But the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, oil is still $17 above where it started the year, and the IMF just told you global growth is slowing. Markets are betting that the diplomacy works and the energy shock fades. That bet may be right. But it's still a bet.